Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 18.230506 22.012664 26.205287 31.172871 36.872138 43.180268 50.663238
2025-05-11 12.841246 17.794142 23.880816 31.799277 41.707268 53.569025 68.705218
2025-05-18 9.545819 14.792434 21.788187 31.558986 44.584996 61.068287 83.180113
2025-05-25 7.143499 12.272372 19.633326 30.570709 45.955317 66.332685 94.791530
2025-06-01 5.617072 10.609101 18.263951 30.269648 47.945245 72.263697 107.362429
2025-06-08 4.279882 8.910394 16.500185 29.050666 48.352253 75.870875 116.812430
2025-06-15 3.652647 8.250929 16.211974 29.946399 51.804330 83.835979 132.605556
2025-06-22 2.865699 7.109374 14.923983 29.049665 52.376667 87.574980 142.482250
2025-06-29 2.505454 6.708644 14.839779 30.083407 55.981154 95.932914 159.398264
2025-07-06 1.886419 5.603108 13.280890 28.374361 54.964923 97.147118 165.693493
2025-07-13 1.669713 5.342051 13.286081 29.420819 58.551781 105.633175 183.296573
2025-07-20 1.466558 5.060003 13.199538 30.269091 61.828664 113.754469 200.639482
2025-07-27 1.268915 4.772497 13.128956 31.282163 65.722526 123.486974 221.623631
2025-08-03 1.067992 4.418013 12.866711 31.918696 69.051168 132.578652 242.202113
2025-08-10 0.852729 3.936665 12.218388 31.678100 70.729436 138.975745 258.710104
2025-08-17 0.645887 3.385179 11.279705 30.686832 70.880402 142.734146 271.025263
2025-08-24 0.510080 3.011969 10.702436 30.384851 72.291342 148.693915 287.174846
2025-08-31 0.373306 2.551354 9.779224 29.162120 71.752795 151.141644 297.475438
2025-09-07 0.321533 2.425803 9.768855 30.060611 75.547626 161.520704 321.658220
2025-09-14 0.238214 2.090588 9.055492 29.161116 75.540536 164.946978 333.958006
2025-09-21 0.207722 2.011198 9.118902 30.198040 79.680395 176.213234 360.322775
2025-09-28 0.140293 1.650684 8.164334 28.483722 77.747533 175.974857 366.362857
2025-10-05 0.122486 1.596531 8.250148 29.533415 81.955542 187.592099 393.938078